Temperature will rise by 3.2 degrees, even if the Paris Agreement’s reduction commitments will be fulfilled, warns the UN.
The United Nations Environment Program annual report on carbon emissions compares the actual reductions with those needed to “fight” against global warming.
The data will be analyzed at the Climate Summit that is to be held in Madrid between December 2nd and the 13th.
The study concludes that global emissions should be reduced by 7.6% each year between 2020 and 2030 to meet the goal needed to prevent a 1.5 degree rise during the 21st century.
The report also indicates that the expressed promises of reduction of emissions made by the “international community” must be five times more ambitious than current guarantees.
According to the United Nations, in the last decade the carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) and other greenhouse gases have increased 1.5% annually, and in 2018 reached a historical record of 55.3 giga tons.
More than 13 giga tons come from the People’s Republic of China, the largest emitter, but it is not yet required to cut emissions in absolute terms due to its status as a developing country.
Second, with over six gigabytes, are the United States, which abandoned the Paris Agreement in 2017.
Following the current trend, the average temperature could rise this century to “intolerable” 3.9 degrees.
Despite the EU’s promise to reduce emissions by 40% by 2030, the increase could be 3.2 degrees, which is not enough either.
The United Nations underlines that 2020 is going to be a “crucial year for a climate action”, and several countries are expected to increase the reduction measures after the Glasgow Climate Summit.
“Our collective failure to act vigorously on climate change means that we must achieve strong emissions reductions,” said Ingre Andersson, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program.
“Every city, every region, every business, every individual, must act now,” he added.
The Paris Agreement set the goal of keeping the average temperature rise of the planet below two degrees, this century, compared to preindustrial times.
Even so, the Intergovernmental Group of Climate Change Specialists (IPCC) considered that the target limit should be 1.5 degrees.
Overcoming this rise of temperature, according to the IPCC, may increase the frequency and intensity of adverse phenomena such as heat waves, droughts, floods and storms in the coming years.